As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field this afternoon, they find themselves as slight favorites with the money line set at -106. The first pitch is scheduled for 2:20 PM ET, and the game features an intriguing matchup of pitchers who each have something to prove.
Justin Steele: Consistency on the Mound
Starting for the Cubs will be left-hander Justin Steele, who has been solid if not spectacular in his 14 starts this season. Steele boasts a 2-3 record with a commendable 2.71 ERA. Despite his modest win-loss record, he has delivered eight quality starts, demonstrating his ability to keep the Cubs competitive. His home ERA stands at 3.16, while his performance on the road has been even better with a 2.96 ERA.
In his most recent outing, Steele pitched seven scoreless innings, showcasing his potential to dominate lineups. The Cubs will be looking for Steele to continue this streak of strong performances as they aim to climb up the standings in the NL Central, where they currently sit in fifth place, 8.5 games behind the Brewers.
Ryne Nelson: A Steady Presence
Opposing Steele on the mound will be Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Nelson enters the game with a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA. Although his ERA is higher than Steele’s, Nelson has shown resilience by making six consecutive starts without surrendering more than three earned runs. With a WHIP of 1.42 and a batting average against of .296, Nelson's main challenge will be maintaining his consistency against a Cubs lineup that averages 4.2 runs per game and has been heating up recently.
Diamondbacks' Offensive Strength
The Diamondbacks support their pitching staff with a potent offense that averages five runs per game, the second-best mark in MLB. Sluggers Christian Walker and Ketel Marte lead the charge with 22 and 19 homers, respectively. Despite a frustrating recent loss to the Blue Jays, where they squandered a seven-run lead to fall 8-7, Arizona has won two straight road games and holds a 4-1 record in their last five away games. They are second in the NL West, trailing only the Dodgers by seven games.
Arizona's games tend to feature plenty of scoring, averaging 9.8 runs this season, which explains their 52-42 over/under record. Both teams are riding three-game over streaks, and with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs for today's game, there is a good chance for another high-scoring affair. The Diamondbacks have a 6-4 record when the over/under is set at 7.5, while 84.5% of their games surpass that line. For the Cubs, 67.3% of their games exceed the 7.5 run threshold, and they hold a 12-10 record in such situations.
Cubs' Recent Form
The Cubs come into today's matchup with a bit of momentum, having gone 7-3 in their last ten games. They have also performed well at home, boasting a 4-1 record in their last five games at Wrigley Field. As home underdogs this season, the Cubs have a respectable 9-5 record. While their overall batting average sits at .235, recent performances from players like Nico Hoerner, who has hit .378 over his last nine games, and Christopher Morel, with three homers in his last eight games, indicate that the Cubs’ offense could pose a challenge to Nelson.
Pitching Projections
As the game approaches, projections suggest that Justin Steele will rack up six strikeouts, while Ryne Nelson is projected to strike out four. Steele is anticipated to concede fewer runs than Nelson, which could be a critical factor in determining the outcome of the game.
All signs point to a competitive matchup between the Diamondbacks and the Cubs. With both teams looking to continue their recent runs of form, today's game promises excitement for fans and could have significant implications for both squads as they navigate the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks are predicted to edge out a narrow 5-4 victory, but with the unpredictability of baseball, fans can expect anything to happen at Wrigley Field this afternoon.