At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins suffered a stinging defeat, blowing a three-run lead to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians, marking their 18th loss in the last 27 games. This latest setback occurred when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. The defeat further underscores the Twins' struggles as the postseason approaches.
Despite currently holding the third American League wild-card spot, their lead has shrunk to just 1 1/2 games. The significance of this dwindling margin is evident in the rapidly changing odds of their postseason berth. As of September 5, FanGraphs had the Twins’ postseason odds at an impressive 95.4%. That figure has since declined to 76.4%, reflecting the team’s recent downturn.
The offensive production has been a major concern for the Twins. In 12 of their last 27 games, they have failed to score more than three runs, batting a collective .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. This lack of output has left the team struggling to capitalize on opportunities, especially when the bases are empty, where they rank fourth worst in the game with a .272 batting average.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," expressed Pablo López, highlighting the tightrope the team is walking.
Struggles from the Bullpen
Adding to their woes is the bullpen performance. In their first 123 games, the bullpen maintained a 3.84 ERA and was ranked tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41). However, during the recent 27-game stretch, the bullpen's performance has markedly deteriorated, posting an ERA of 5.47 along with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
"We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," admitted manager Rocco Baldelli. His words reflect the uncertainty that has plagued the Twins' recent performances.
Endurance Tested
The physical toll on the team has also been significant, with the Twins having played 17 games in the last 18 days. The rest of the rotation has posted a troubling 6.07 ERA during the last 27 games, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. Bullpen fatigue is apparent, as Griffin Jax lamented, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The Twins have been in a strong competitive position late in games, holding the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and being tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. Yet, closing out these games has become a recurring challenge.
Recent Moves and Player Performances
Aiming to bolster their pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," explained Derek Falvey regarding the acquisition.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are lurking just two games behind the Twins in the standings, though the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams. The Tigers have been particularly impressive, going 23-10 in their last 33 games.
In a month filled with struggles, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown some signs of life, combining to go 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer. And there's hope on the horizon with Max Kepler expected to return, potentially bolstering a faltering offense.
"If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," reiterated Rocco Baldelli, emphasizing the need for a cohesive and complete performance.
With the postseason race tightening, the Twins face an uphill battle. Their ability to regroup and execute in these final stretch games will determine whether they can hold onto their wild-card spot and make a serious run in October.