Building a championship-winning fantasy basketball team hinges on a blend of strategy, knowledge, and calculated risk-taking. This season promises to be no different, with a mix of dependable stars and wild cards poised to influence the outcome of fantasy leagues across the globe.
The Dependables
Among the consistent performers, Joel Embiid stands out. The Philadelphia 76ers center is projected to average over 60 fantasy points per game this season, a figure that aligns closely with his performance last year, where he averaged 61 fantasy points per game. However, there’s always a caveat with Embiid: his durability. Despite his high scoring average, Embiid has never played more than 68 games in a season and suited up for only 39 games last year. These numbers raise questions about his ability to sustain such high production over an entire season.
On a more reliable note, Nikola Jokic continues to be a cornerstone in fantasy basketball. Jokic's durability is unparalleled among top-tier fantasy athletes. He played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69 games in any season of his career. This level of consistency makes Jokic a safe bet for fantasy managers seeking dependable contributions.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis of the Los Angeles Lakers also warrant attention. Last season, James played 71 games while Davis played 76. However, context is crucial: James averaged only 52 games over the previous three seasons, and Davis similarly averaged just 44 games in that span. Adding another layer of complexity, James is turning 40 this season, and Davis has played more than 70 games in consecutive seasons only once in his 12-year career. The ability of these aging superstars to stay healthy will be a significant factor in their fantasy value.
High-Risk, High-Reward Players
Some players come with inherent risk due to injury histories or other factors. Ja Morant, for instance, missed 73 games last season due to suspension and injury. Nonetheless, when he is on the court, Morant is a stellar performer. Over the past three seasons, he has averaged 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG). Now 25 years old, Morant's potential remains sky-high if he can manage to stay on the floor.
Kevin Durant is another player who, despite his advancing years, still holds immense fantasy value. Durant played 75 games last season and is entering his 18th NBA season at 36 years old. His enduring skill and experience make him a valuable asset, but his age also makes him a bit of a gamble.
Kyrie Irving offers a similar dichotomy. Over his last five seasons, Irving has averaged 26.7 PPG with shooting splits of 49.3% from the field, 39.9% from three-point range, and 91.2% from the free-throw line. These numbers are elite, but Irving’s availability is a critical concern; he averaged just 44.2 games per season over that span. Despite ranking 22nd in fantasy points per game last season, his 47th place in total fantasy points underscores the impact of his limited availability.
The Uncertainties
Then there is Zion Williamson, one of the NBA's most electrifying young talents. Williamson averaged 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG between the 2020-21 and 2022-23 seasons. However, his availability has been a significant issue, playing only 90 out of a possible 236 regular-season games in that period. Yet, he seemed to turn a corner last season by playing a career-high 70 games and showcasing his incredible scoring ability with a 27.1 PPG average over a 10-game stretch late in the season. Managers who pick Williamson are banking on his recent health improvements being a trend rather than an anomaly.
Kawhi Leonard remains a similar enigma. Last season, Leonard played 68 games and finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league. However, knee issues caused him to miss 12 of the Clippers’ last 14 games, including the playoffs. Leonard’s fantasy value is undeniable when he is on the court, but his recurring health issues pose a persistent risk.
As fantasy basketball managers prepare for the upcoming season, weighing the reliability of a player against their potential upside is key. Whether it's trusting the steady hand of Nikola Jokic or gambling on the high ceiling of Zion Williamson, the right balance of risk and reward will likely determine the champions from the also-rans.